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May 1998 Newsletter

The Region's 1998 Capital Budget

The 56-page document titled "1998-2007 Capital Budget Business Plan" was released on April 15, 1998. It opens with this paragraph:

"Approval of the Capital Budget in 1997 launched the Region in a new strategic direction. Previously, much of the capital funding for maintenance, rehabilitation and replacement of existing infrastructure was redirected to large capital projects such as the Freeway and Homes for the Aged. Redirecting funds in this manner was necessary because the scope of the capital program had continued to increase without a commensurate increase in funding; however, it had a detrimental impact on the Region's existing infrastructure. In 1997, this issue was addressed by segmenting the capital budget into two spending envelopes, one for existing infrastructure, the second for capital expansion projects."

This tells us quite a bit. The second sentence admits that the Linc was paid for (at least partly) with monies that should have been spent on the maintenance of existing infrastructure. It is ironic that this document was issued two days after a major fire raged out of control because there was no water pressure in the pipes. This is the "detrimental impact" spoken of in the third sentence. The "reason" for the redirecting of funds, as noted in the third sentence, was essentially that the council marched ahead on their pet projects, but didn't have the courage to raise taxes to pay for them, instead "redirecting" the money from postponed essential maintenance. The final sentence means that this budget separates maintenance capital spending from expansion capital spending, such as the expressway.

Approve Expressway, but...

Under the sub-title "Capital Expansion Projects" on page 3 we read: "The difficult decisions to be made with respect to the Capital Budget relate to the spending envelope for capital expansion projects because project merits must be balanced with the related debt implications. Expansion projects require significant (emphasis in original) capital expenditures -- the new capital expansion projects commencing in 1998 will require an increase in the operating budgets in the amount of $3.0 million in 1999, and a further $3.4 million in the year 2000."

The next paragraph ends with the following sentence: "It is recommended that approval of these projects be given; however, in order to control the level of debt that these projects generates, consideration of delaying or eliminating some of the projects may be in order." What can be said of such a contradictory sentence? It can be summarized as "we suggest you jump, but expect you may not survive". An accompanying table lists the expressway and five other expansion projects and gives three options "Defer projects. Re-prioritize projects. Eliminate projects."

Existing Infrastructure Mess

Pages 5-8 examine the budget for existing infrastructure."The 1997 Capital Budget Business Plan recognized the existing infrastructure spending envelope as the highest priority for the capital budget. There was, and remains, an urgent need to rebuild the funding level for infrastructure to a sustainable level." It also points out that "Postponement of maintenance for infrastructure serves to aggravate existing problems. The repair and replacement of infrastructure is 5-6 times more costly than if an investment is made in annual maintenance, rehabilitation and replacement. Recognizing the need to address this issue, Regional Council approved annual contributions to increase the funding of existing infrastructure to sustainable levels (emphasis in original) commencing in 1997 and 1998. These increases, over a 20-year period, serve as an investment in the future of Hamilton-Wentworth."

The report referred to came out in December 1996. It found that ANNUAL maintenance expenditures on existing infrastructure was $113.4 million BELOW the sustainable levels. It recommended the sustainable levels be reached within 15 years, but Council apparently decided 20 years was soon enough! Graphs showed that spending on maintenance had been below sustainable levels since at least 1990 for both Waterworks and Sanitary Sewers. The combined deficit on these two in 1997 accounted for $92.7 million of the total $113.4 million.

Unfortunately the graphs only go back to 1990, so they don't show exactly how long the underfunding has been going on. However, in 1990 spending for each of Waterworks and Sanitary Sewers was considerably less than half of the sustainable level. Just in the 1990-1997 period the TOTAL underfunding was not less than $500 million! This, of course, is really debt, but it doesn't show up on the books. Indeed, the accumulated debt may be 5-6 times this amount if we accept the staff argument that failing to maintain the system leads to that much greater costs in the long run.

As noted, the plan for raising money for existing infrastructure to "sustainable levels" is a 20-year one and involves $7.30 in increased taxes or water/sewer fees per average household in EACH of those years.

Capital Expansion Projects

The remainder of the report (pages 9-15) focuses on the Capital Expansion Projects. (note there are also 41 pages of appendices). These are broken into "Approved Projects" and "New Projects". Only one project falls into the "approved" category: "The Linc (E/W Section)" and $9.0 million is earmarked over the next three years for that project. This refers to the requirement to construct a new interchange at the 403.

There are six "new projects": Red Hill Creek (N/S) $108.3 million; Macassa Lodge Final Phase $20.9 million; Closed Landfills (fixing 6 of them) $16.1 million; Corporate Financial Information System $4.7 million; Human Resources Information System $900,000; Downtown Initiatives $2 million.

Note that the total spending on these six (over the next 3 years) is $152.9 million. The expressway accounts for 71% of this spending. All the projects except the expressway will be completed by the end of the year 2000. An additional $32.1 million in expressway spending is planned for 2001. When this is included, the expressway spending is 76% of the six projects.

Three other "new projects" are also listed, but no spending on these is scheduled for this year. The staff note in the report that "In reviewing these costs, the focus should be on the projects which commence in 1998. Future savings can be achieved through deferral or elimination of specific projects, but the decision to do so must be made now. If the projects commencing in 1998 are approved, the related financing costs will commence in 1999."

The "new projects" not commencing in 1998 are as follows: Glanbrook Landfill (new leachate collection system) $4.0 million; Mountain Police Station $11.0 million (all spending in 1999); CSO Tanks (Pollution Control Plan - RAP) $11.7 million (starting in 1999).Wentworth Lodge phases two and three is also listed as a new project but NO dollars are allocated during 1998-2000. The total cost is given as $14.7 million.

Note that the $108.3 million for the expressway is not the total remaining cost. This report gives that figure as $140.4 million. However, the appendix makes clear that this only includes $8.5 million of the $23-25 million cost of the QEW interchange and none of the $20 million plus cost of the Burlington Street interchange reconstruction. The $140.4 million figure is definitely understated, but even this very low estimate of the costs of the north-south expressway has generated dire financial warnings from the staff.

Decision Time Is Now

The report's comments on these new projects include: "These projects represent substantial capital outlays -- if approved, the Region is committed to the related capital financing costs. It should be noted that the elimination of any of these "new" projects will not impact the 1998 Current Budget. However, these projects must be scrutinized for elimination or deferral if savings in future net financing costs are to be achieved."

The report continues: "Currently there are insufficient capital reserves to finance the proposed expansion projects. If approved, these projects will require external debenture financing and burden regional property taxes and users fees due to increased debt charges. The deferral or elimination of some of the expansion projects in order to control the level of external debt may be a consideration.

"The critical questions to be answered at this point in time are as follows:

  • Which capital expansion projects should be approved for 1998?
  • Should any of the capital expansion projects be delayed?
  • Should any of the capital expansion projects be eliminated?"

These three questions are in bold face type, which otherwise is only used for headings in the report. Staff are obviously worried about the consequences of proceeding. This is underlined in the final section of the report titled "Debt Implications".

Debt Implications

It begins with this sentence: "The increased debt charges that will result from an expanded capital program impact both the Region's credit rating and its Current Budget flexibility." This is followed by a table titled "Projected Debt Requirements" which includes $45.3 million in borrowing for existing infrastructure and $89.2 million for "capital expansion". The total borrowing anticipated over the three years (1998-2000) is $134.5 million, an amount almost equal to the entire current regional external debt. The borrowing required for the expressway is listed as $53 million. Since the provincial government subsidy runs out in the year 2000, the remaining $32.1 million scheduled to be spent in 2001 would also be borrowed to bring total loans for the north-south to $85.1 million. Note again that we continue to believe that the costs of the project are seriously underestimated.

The table of debt requirements is followed by another titled "Projected Ratio of Total Debt to Total Reserves". Figures are given for 1998 (1.33), 1999 (1.82) and 2000 (2.07). The table is followed by a section titled "Implications" with three parts:

"1. Credit Rating: An acceptable debt to reserves ratio is 1:1, which is the 1997 ratio for the Region. The table above indicates that the debt to reserve ratio is negatively impacted as the Region's debt level rises. If this ratio increases, the Region risks having its credit rating lowered." This is putting it mildly. Going from a 1:1 ratio to 2:1 ratio in three years is little short of disastrous and will certainly result in the lowering of the Region's credit rating (i.e. significant increases in the interest charges on loans made to the Region).

"2. Current Budget Impact: Additional debt reduces the flexibility in the Operating Budget, because more of the budget is required to service the debt. As a result, the Region's ability to manage the operating budget is impaired." It goes on to note that the benchmark is that debt costs should not be more than 5% of the operating budget and that level has already been reached.

"3. Downloading: Compounding the debt implications of an expanded capital program is the potential for additional costs from downloading. Capital requirements and their related impacts have not been determined for GO Transit, ambulances, social housing stock and downloaded highways."

More Funny Money?

The final paragraph is called "Options": "Given the implications of borrowing externally for the Region's capital financing requirements, it is recommended that other structured financing options be explored in order to accommodate future capital requirements." This is apparently a reference to schemes such as the one hatched last year where the Region tried to borrow $90 million from private investors and only pay 4% interest because the terms would allow the private investors to reap huge tax savings. This scheme was unceremoniously stomped on by the provincial and federal governments whose treasuries would have been robbed. What else our regional magicians have up their sleeve is unknown, but their track record so far is uninspiring.


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