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June
1998 Newsletter
Regional
Air Quality and the Red Hill Creek Expressway
The
following letter was released on June 22 and was kindly
provided to Friends of Red Hill Valley by its authors.
In
its "Executive Summary" document released on June 11, the
Region of Hamilton-Wentworth and the Ontario Ministry of
Transportation have made the claim that construction of
the Red Hill Valley Expressway will improve regional air
quality. In this letter two McMaster University air quality
experts, including the senior author of the study upon which
the Executive Summary and other documents are based, examine
the statements made.
The
section on air quality in the document begins: "Air quality
impacts have been assessed at both a Region wide and local
scale. Based on Year 2020 "rush hour" predictions, the Red
Hill Creek Expressway will decrease vehicle emissions in
the Region by 3 to 16%."
This
claim is repeated in the press release issued by the Region
on June 11. The text of the release states: "Air quality
experts have also predicted that the Expressway will eventually
result in some reduction in total vehicle emissions across
Hamilton-Wentworth during the next 20 years." An attachment
to the press release contains the following statement: "Overall
vehicle emissions in the Region are expected to decline
3-16% during the next 20 years."
These
claims are inaccurate and misleading. They contain multiple
errors of fact and their central thesis that the expressway
will decrease vehicle emissions is simply wrong. In fact,
all indications are that the opposite is true.
We note the following mistakes in the statements of the
Region and the Ministry of Transportation.
*
region-wide air quality was not assessed by the Region nor
by its consultants. The study that is referred to was done
by McMaster researchers as part of the Hamilton Air Quality
Initiative.
*
the McMaster study actually looked at the Census Metropolitan
Area of Hamilton which includes Burlington and Grimsby not
just the Region of Hamilton-Wentworth.
*
the McMaster study did not make any predictions on PM10
emissions which is the air quality parameter that has by
far the most serious health impacts of any vehicle emissions.
*
the study used a computer modelling approach to make predictions
about emissions for the year 2021 (not 2020)
*
the study compared several scenarios for 2021. Two are referred
to by the Region and MTO in their Executive Summary. Both
of these scenarios assumed that regional population would
increase to 566,000 (from 451,000 in 1991). One scenario
assumed no new road construction would take place before
2021. The second scenario assumed that all roadway construction
currently planned for would take place. Both scenarios predicted
increased vehicle emissions. The 3-16% "reduction" is actually
the difference between the emission increases predicted
for these two scenarios.
*
the 3-16% difference for the region is unlikely to materialise
for the following three reasons:
-
the study only made predictions on morning rush hour commuter
traffic. It did not consider the effects of road improvements
or expansions on the number of vehicle trips made outside
of rush hour. It is very likely that discretionary trips
outside the peak period will increase when the expressway
or other new roads are built. If the analysis had been
done for a 24-hour period instead of a single hour at
the peak of the three-hour morning rush, the results would
likely have been much different.
-
the study did not examine the likely effect of the expressway
in increasing land values and enticing new development
in the Red Hill area which would result in more traffic
and emissions.
-
the study did not take account of truck emissions which
are the main source of the most dangerous vehicle emissions.
Truck emissions were not included because the Region could
not provide adequate data about truck numbers and movements
in the Region. This data still has not been gathered.
* the McMaster study did not specifically target the effect
of building the Red Hill Creek Expressway. The new roadway
construction assumed in the second scenario included "all
the Region's planned [road] improvements and expansions,
including the Red Hill Expressway and the bypass of Highway
5 around Waterdown". Note that the "Red Hill Expressway"
in this statement includes both the Lincoln Alexander
Parkway (not opened at the time of the study) and the
proposed north-south valley expressway.
When
these facts are placed alongside the statements of the Region,
it becomes clear that many errors and misinterpretations
have been made.
The
study was carried out by Pavlos Kanaroglou, W.P. Anderson,
and Robert South of McMaster University as part of the Hamilton
Air Quality Initiative (HAQI) completed last year. Regional
officials and consultants have stated that they are basing
their claims on this study, the authors of which were never
consulted during the preparation of executive summary and
press release documents. The study included several traffic
flow scenarios anticipated for the year 2021. It did not
advocate the construction of more roads. Rather it concluded
that vehicle emissions could be most successfully controlled
or reduced by increasing the use of public transit and by
technological improvements to vehicles. It also found that
some improvement could be accomplished by more concentrated
land use instead of sprawl development. The HAQI report
pointed out that "changes in emission technology and reduction
in vehicle use are crucial to reducing the impact of vehicle
emissions on air quality." It advocates "increasing bus
ridership, walking, cycling and car pooling, and changes
to work arrangements such as telecommuting and compressed
work weeks."
Dr.
Pavlos Kanaroglou
Dr. David Pengell
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