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September
1997 Newsletter
Regional
Transportation Study Shows
There is No Need for More Escarpment Crossing Capacity in
the Next 25 Years
Future
traffic volume used to be a a major argument advanced for
building the north-south expressway. However, it is full
of holes. Predictions made 15 years ago have not come true,
and recent forecasts of future growth are unrealistic, and
even if attained will not create a crisis.
In 1982 it was predicted that 3900 vehicles per hour (vph)
would be trying to cross the escarpment during rush hour
on Highway 20 and Mount Albion Road by 2001. Current peak
flows are about 2500 vph and are still well below the capacity
of these two east-end escarpment crossings. Moreover, peak
flows have not increased since 1990. The projections were
wrong primarily because they assumed increases in employment
on the Bayfront (where 25,000 jobs have actually disappeared
since 1981).
The most recent regional population forecasts cover the
period from 1991 to 2021. They predict the population will
grow from 451,000 to 566,000, and that more suburban sprawl
will accommodate nearly all the increase. Up to 49,000 new
residents are forecast for the south Mountain and upper
Stoney Creek areas.
So far, the predictions are wrong. Between 1991 and 1996
actual growth was only 57% of what was forecast.
Yet even if all predicted growth takes place, there will
still not be enough traffic to require the valley expressway.
This is shown by an examination of the traffic forecasts
contained in the 1995 Regional Transportation Review. This
study assumed that the predicted population growth would
occur and that the north-south expressway would be built.
Yet it concludes that peak flows across the escarpment in
2021 will not exceed the capacity existing today!
Table 4.3 of the study shows that total escarpment crossing
capacity in 1994 was 14,800 vehicles per hour. However,
the table does not include Mount Albion Road because the
study assumes the valley expressway will be built and eliminate
this crossing. Mt. Albion's capacity is at least 800 vph.
Using the population projections outlined above, the study
predicts that vehicle flows in peak periods in 2021 will
be 16,100 per hour. This appears to generate a shortage
of 1300 vph. However, More than half (700) of this shortfall
is on the west escarpment crossing. That will be easily
eliminated by the widening of the 403 by two lanes (a provincial
government project now underway). The central and east end
escarpment crossings are expected to have a shortage of
600 vph (an amount currently handled by Mt. Albion Road!).
Consequently, it can be seen that there is no overall shortage
of peak flow capacity, even in 2021, even allowing for very
optimistic growth projections and the expectation that growth
downtown will not occur!
IF the Region grows as rapidly as predicted, and IF nearly
all the growth is in more suburban sprawl on top of the
escarpment and virtually none is in downtown or lower Hamilton,
and IF the expressway is NOT constructed; then, by 2021
we will approach capacity on the central and east escarpment
crossings, and need to consider expansion. Widening Highway
20 by two lanes will add 1100 vph capacity. At absolute
worst, sometime between now and 2021, there may be a need
to widen Highway 20.
It should also be kept in mind that a major shift in employment
location of Hamilton-Wentworth residents is taking place.
Between 1981 and 1991, the percentage of residents working
in the Greater Toronto Area (including Halton) jumped from
9.4% to 16.3%. During the same period the number working
in Niagara Region remained at 0.7%. Thus we can expect that
flows west toward the GTA along the east-west freeway and
the 403 will increase, while little growth will occur in
the demand to travel east towards Niagara.
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